Infill Thinking Lifting the O&G knowledge curve

The big public frac sand suppliers (companies like Hi-Crush, US Silica, Fairmount Santrol, and Smart Sand) will be closely watched when they report earnings this quarter. Expectations for increased proppant demand are high as the US shale industry gets back to work. But Big Sand won’t be talking about their own …

One month ago, we wrote in an update to Infill Thinking subscribers that Patterson-UTI was likely to pre-announce better than expected results for 4Q16. Late Monday afternoon, the company did exactly that. Patterson-UTI said in a pre-announcement that its sales during the past quarter were 7% higher than analysts have …

Halliburton’s strategy for 2017 is shifting, and the company will have a whole different M.O. this year. Jeff Miller, Halliburton President expressed his feelings about the new year this way: “in many ways, 2016 was like a bar room brawl where everyone, and I mean everyone, took a punch. But …

Oilfield service pricing moving higher cyclically is a good thing for all our readers (including operators, for current pricing is unsustainable and will destroy capacity in the long run). That said, we stand at a tricky juncture in the cycle for oilfield service company decision makers trying to reset their …

After a brush back in the second week of the year, the US land rig count surged ahead last week. 2017 E&P budgets and drilling programs are kicking in and we expect continued strength over the next 4-6 weeks. Take out a free trial below to see our full analysis of …

Here at Infill Thinking, we don’t forecast the price of oil – we focus on oilfield activity, markets, and companies. But we do regularly talk to some of the best crude oil minds in the business. When they share noteworthy observations, we pass them along. So when one of these …

This morning, Schlumberger management hosted a conference call with analysts to discuss 4Q16 results and the 2017 outlook. The company kicked off oilfield service earnings season on a positive note. Following nine consecutive quarters of relentless workforce reductions, cost cutting, and restructuring efforts, Schlumberger is restoring focus on the pursuit …

The big to-do in Washington today isn’t the only inauguration going today. In New York, the markets inaugurated Keane Group Inc. as the newest publicly traded frac outfit today. In this update, we discuss the IPO’s early performance and introduce the newest public frac company. There’s a lot more to this story… …

Schlumberger kicks off 4Q earnings season this week, hosting a conference call Friday morning to discuss the 2017 outlook. During the fourth quarter, a cyclical inflection point materialized in the US onshore market. A key question during the calls this earnings season will be how sustainable the cyclical growth trajectory …

Permian oilfield service and drilling contractors are having one great start to the year. Contractors got another dose of good news yesterday as Noble Energy expanded in the Permian Basin with the acquisition of Clayton Williams. In this update, we discuss why the deal is good for oilfield service contractors …

In the first months of the downturn, we began warning that a workforce designed for $100 oil is not the same one needed at $50 oil. However, the oilfield service industry right sized extremely quickly to lower activity levels over the past two years. We’ll soon see just how surgical these cuts …

Nothing can go up and to the right forever, especially not the rig count. The US onshore rig count fell back by six units this week. This break is actually a good thing and we explain why and break down the weekly rig count in in this post. There’s a …

WPX Energy joined in the Permian deal making fray, announcing a $775mm Delaware Basin acquisition late Thursday. 2017 operating plan announcements from Permian Independents aren’t the standard fare this year. We are used beginning of year E&P operating plans stating capex, production, and drilling program summaries. This year they are …

In a related update published last week, we described how the brute force enterprise of nano-darcy E&P is becoming more elegant. Elegance is achieved as sub-surface understanding moves closer to a realistic picture of the reservoir. Enhancing sub-surface understanding is where leading innovators in shale are focused today. They are …

News from Parsley Energy and SM Energy on Tuesday continued the Great Permian Migration trend this week. We break down the news into the most important incremental bullet points and provide a few words on the bigger picture trend in the Permian. By the way, if you are looking to …

Last week we published a list of four companies we expect to make oil service acquisitions during 2017. Apparently grass isn’t growing under our buyers feet – less than a week after our preview, one of them has already made a purchase. There’s a lot more to this story… Login to see …

On February 2, Weatherford’s new CEO Krishna Shivram will talk to investors for the first time as the boss of the company. He’s got some work to do. The market will be looking for a restoration of confidence. That means Krishna needs to have a story for the new Weatherford …

Another week of US onshore rig count gains is in the books. But before we quantify that in our weekly statistical update (see full update below), the other side of the equation deserves a few words. Everyone is focused on rising rig counts today. Tomorrow they’ll be focused on dayrates. And …

We don’t normally republish articles from third party sources in full. But an in depth survey on the state of the Permian released at the end of last year is making the rounds this week. And if you haven’t seen it yet, it is definitely worth taking a look. Runaway …

In E&P, most analysts expect M&A action to be hot and heavy during the first half of 2017. There is less consensus about a wave of M&A coming in oilfield service (OFS), partly because of challenging valuations. So we put pen to paper this week and came up with the …

On a conference call in 2011, the always eloquent Clay Williams of National Oilwell Varco (then CFO, now CEO) said: The unconventional shale model is utterly unlike drilling a generation ago, which saw fleeting glimpses of precious darcy reservoir rock here or there, elusive four-way closure, a rare and fortuitous geologic …

The shale industry kicked off the new year with a continuation of the great migration to the Permian Basin. This morning SM Energy announced the sale of its third party operated assets in the Eagle Ford, including its ownership interest in related midstream assets, for $800 million. In this update we …

US land drillers sent 2016 packing with a bang. Since May, the drilling recovery has looked exceptionally strong on a percentage basis. The December trend looked exceptionally strong on an absolute basis too with 65 US rigs returning to work. December 2016 delivered the best absolute rig count increase of …

Two years into the downturn and at oil prices just half of prior highs, the US tight oil industry has begun to stage a recovery. We’ve all seen this new optimism in the tangible data. Rig count, capex, headcount, frac utilization – these are just a few of the US …

Each winter, we look forward to unwrapping the annual rig census report released by National Oilwell Varco. With it’s uniquely comprehensive rig market history, the report provides good perspective on the competitive landscape for drilling rigs around the world. There were no surprises on the demand side this year – …

It’s fair to say that the blow out preventer (BOP) business model is being re-shaped as we write. 10 months ago, GE and Diamond introduced a new BOP arrangement to the marketplace – one that transfers up-time responsibility to the OEM. This week, the largest BOP supplier moved to implement …

In an interim update posted this morning, oilfield chemical supplier Flotek positively revised its outlook to account for a more constructive US drilling and completions market as 2016 winds down. Last week we wrote about how the consensus 4Q slump is a no show this year. Flotek’s announcement provides confirmation and …

The US land drilling market is exiting the worst downturn in history. Why not follow that with the sharpest rebound ever? That is exactly what is happening now. Since bottoming about 30 weeks ago, the US rig count has increased 60%. The 1985 recovery outpaced this one for 25 weeks before falling back. The only …

In the US, the O&G industry has begun to hire staff again for the first time in two years. We snapped this encouraging photo in front of a Halliburton completions yard while touring the Permian Basin in early-December. Source: InfillThinking.com Given what we know about the ongoing recovery and a …

Frac IPOs are back.  We mean that literally because the company about to make its public debut will trade under the ticker FRAC. This week, Keane Group Inc., owner of the 7th largest US frac fleet and employer of 1,251, filed an S-1 for a potential IPO. The company is …

This holiday season is the most jolly in years for the oil and gas business. It finally feels like the tide is turning on many fronts. One Year Ago, We Predicted Everything Would Bottom In 2016 Exactly one year ago, we wrote the following outlook for another shop: As realists, we have …

The Fed raised interest rates for the second time in a decade on Wednesday. The Federal Open Market Committee raised its target range by a quarter point to 0.5% – 0.75%. The committee also expects to make three rate hikes in 2017, two or three in 2018 and three in 2019. …

Even when offshore drillers aren’t tapping the capital markets for debt or equity, financial restructuring is quietly continuing behind the scenes. Contractual terms continue to be renegotiated with customers, and price concessions are still being given. Literally hundreds of multi-year contracts that were in effect this time two years ago have …

Land drilling / pressure pumping hybrids Patterson-UTI and Seventy Seven Energy have agreed to join forces as 2016 draws to a close. Patterson-UTI will purchase Seventy Seven Energy for $1.76bn in an all-stock deal that includes the assumption and repayment of $336mm of net debt. This deal isn’t a bargain, as …

If OPEC’s November 30th decision to cut production was like adding tinder to smoldering embers, then progress made over this past weekend was like dumping gasoline on the fire. Lower 48 oilfield activity will gather steam (and quickly) in early-2017. As the upstream supply chain tightens early in the new year, …

Back in October, the North American land market was bracing for a seasonal slowdown into year-end. Here’s the warning Halliburton CEO Dave Lesar issued on a conference call about 6 weeks ago: “Based on current customer feedback we remain cautious around customer activity due to holiday and seasonal weather-related downtime. Our customers …

Compared to PDC Energy’s budget release earlier this week, Chevron’s 2017 continuing budget cuts are a stark reminder of the divergence theme we first wrote about in early-November. That said, these budget cuts are impacting most every area except one, the Permian. We break down the majors budget for subscribers …

In US onshore markets, pipe has long been approached as a cumbersome consumable by the E&P industry. Suppliers haven’t historically provided much hand holding along to go with tubes sold, and many operators have found themselves practically in the pipe business themselves. In the conventional model, operators are invoiced when …

We visited the sprawling $36mm Tenaris Midland Service Center this week. From this new Permian Basin facility, Tenaris is introducing Rig Direct™ to the US shale plays. Here Tenaris is running OCTG (casing and tubing), sucker rods, coiled tubing, and accessories in 24/7 operations. The Midland Service Center is the …

Pioneer Natural Resources is known for progressive thinking on partnerships. The company’s effluent water deal with the City of Odessa is a good example of how the company builds novel relationships to drive costs down. So when Tenaris proposed an unusual alliance around shared yard space, Pioneer listened. The end …

Offshore drilling contractors have been signing deals with shipyards to delay taking rig delivery for several years now. With no visibility on work, it’s better to leave rigs on the docks where they took shape than to store them somewhere harsher. This morning Atwood announced a delay deal on a pair of …

We are in Midland/Odessa this week for meetings and site visits. The vibe here now is very different from our last visit 10 months ago. There is more field traffic on I-20, parking lots are fuller, and there is a stirring in the yards. In this post we discuss firsthand intel from …

PDC Energy is out with their 2017 spending program Monday morning, the first budget we’ve seen released since OPEC announced a production cut last week and sent crude oil prices up 10%. It doesn’t disappoint. We delve into the details and warn why readers should not extrapolate the percentage increase …

Although not everyone is happy about it, we think Chesapeake’s new logo looks pretty good. Actually, really good. As reported by The Oklahoman last week, the company is rolling out a re-brand starting in January 2017, reflecting their evolution from ambitious young natural gas company (remember the blue flame in the …

While the rest of the world focused on OPEC on November 30, US operators were focused on making their tight oil wells more effective with cutting edge innovation. We spent OPEC day in Houston with 35 senior US completions executives at the Darcy Completions Forum, squarely focused on emerging technologies …

The new Weatherford CEO is reportedly in the process of undoing his predecessor’s hydraulic fracturing business plan. If what we’ve been told by industry contacts is true, Krishna Shivram (pictured left) is throttling back frac operations in dramatic fashion. This would be the second big move he’s made in three weeks at the …

BJ Services returned to the scene as a standalone company late Tuesday as Baker Hughes announced the pressure pumping divestiture they talked about before the GE deal and confirmed during the GE announcement. We break down the deal including observations about value, Goldman Sach’s interesting history with BJ Services, and some …

There’s an OPEC meeting this week, have you heard? In a Google News scan Monday morning, we counted more than 100 articles about OPEC published in the last 24 hours alone. Enough will be written this week about the pageantry in Vienna to fill a small library. Endless speculation leading up …

Since inception, hydraulic fracturing and shale exploitation have been fraught with controversy. Initial opposition mostly came from the far left and environmentalists. So called “fracktivists” include bands of protesters, lobbyists pushing for regulation, and filmmakers documenting mythical terrors. These outsiders have presented challenges for the industry ranging from mild annoyances to outright banishment …

Helmerich & Payne’s FlexRig3s have made the company the best-in-class US land driller for a decade. Ask any analyst who the best land driller with the best fleet is and they’ll say H&P almost unanimously. But will that always be the case? Now for the first time in a decade, management is having …