EIA Just Increased Their 2022 U.S. Oil Production Growth Estimate By 20%

Earlier this week, we wrote that market expectations for U.S. oil production are too low (see report).

In that piece, we pointed out that the EIA’s numbers only showed about 640kbpd of U.S. oil production growth in 2022. This compared to our 1mmpbd growth forecast.

Subsequently, the EIA has revised their production forecast to be more bullish.

In fact, on Tuesday, EIA increased their 2022 growth estimate to +770kpbd of production growth y/y in their new short term energy outlook (STEO).

This is a 20% increase in U.S. oil production growth vs. their prior published numbers… still too low, in our view, but getting closer to reality and likely to experience further upwards revisions in future STEO releases…